The state pension looks likely to increase by 8.5% from April next year in line with average earnings growth figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today (12 September).

The rise – the second significant uplift in the state pension in as many years – comes as a result of the triple lock policy retained by successive governments.

It means the state pension increases by the highest of average earnings growth, inflation or 2.5% each year.

AJ Bell said seasonally adjusted pay growth for the three months to July is the figure “that usually counts” for the triple lock, adding that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation for the year to September is the key inflation figure.

The provider explained that assuming today’s earnings growth figure is used for the triple lock, the nation’s pensioners could see:

  • An increase in the old state pension from £156.20 per week to £169.50 per week
  • An increase in the new state pension from £203.85 per week to £221.20 per week

AJ Bell head of retirement policy Tom Selby said: “Retirees are set to receive their second blockbuster state pension increase in a row as a result of the government’s ‘triple lock’ policy.

“With price rises seemingly on a steady downward trajectory, it is almost certain – barring a major inflationary shock – that today’s 8.5% earnings growth figure will be used for next year’s state pension rise. As a result, the full new state pension will surge to £221.20 per week, while those in receipt of the old state pension will see their benefits increase to £169.50 per week.”

He added: “This comes hot on the heels of the bumper 10.1% state pension increase applied in April this year, in line with inflation in the prior September.



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